FAIRFIELD TOWNSHIP-County business leaders painted a generally positive picture of the region's six-month economic outlook Tuesday, even as health-care, finance and agriculture officials warned that factors beyond local control could dampen their prospects and cut into their bottom line between now and July.

The comments came as part of a twice-yearly panel discussion organized by the Bridgeton Area Chamber of Commerce, which invites local business leaders from the real estate and construction, agriculture, finance, health-care and retail sectors, as well as county government, to assess Cumberland County's current and future economic performance.

"Our economy continues to grow and there's no indication that trend won't continue for the foreseeable future," said Glenn Nickerson, the county's director of public affairs.

Nickerson quoted from a November New Jersey Department of Labor and Workforce Development report indicating that 800 jobs had been created inside the Vineland, Millville and Bridgeton area during the first nine months of 2005. Some 500 jobs were created in 2004, Nickerson said.

Nickerson pointed to a number of upcoming retail, residential and commercial projects, including the proposed Millville Thunderbolt Raceway and numerous big-box stores locating in Millville, Upper Deerfield Township and Vineland.

"In many respects, Cumberland County has been discovered," said Ross, who pointed out that real estate agents often refer to the region as the last frontier.

Paul Costenbader, store manager of the Landis Avenue Walgreen's in Upper Deerfield Township, forecasted continued strength in the retail industry.

Costenbader, whose recently opened store posted some of the strongest holiday sales in the chain, said the rising number of jobs and an influx of new residents would drive future retail growth. He pointed to the soon-to-be-completed Wal Mart in Upper Deerfield Township as an example of a business that would create about 500 new jobs when open.

The historically significant agriculture sector rated a 50-out-of-100 score over the last six months, said Wesley Kline, head of Rutgers University's Cumberland County Research and Extension. That was the same as the previous six months, and Kline expected agricultural performance, both in nurseries and crop production to remain about the same for the first six months of 2006.

Late crops, such as lettuce, suffered over the last six months of the year as fall brought heavy rains and a rapid drop in temperatures, Kline said. Meanwhile, the price of field crops fell to their lowest level in three years, Kline said.

Farmers will continue to face stiff competition from Ontario, Canada, which, along with Quebec Province, enjoys special protection from U.S.-grown crops under the North American Free Trade Agreement, Kline said.

"Until the smokescreen clears about what's going on with immigration laws in Congress, we're going to be in an unstable situation," Kline said, adding that farmers in some regions of the southwestern United States had seen their work force diminish by as much as 50 percent in the wake of tightening border controls.

Finance remained strong with a rating of 75 out of 100 for the last six months of 2005, driven by rising deposits, said Kathleen Valla, executive vice president of operations at Newfield National Bank.

Valla said she expected more customers to turn to locally or regionally based banks in the face of ongoing mergers among financial institutions, but she said that as interest rates continue to rise, banks will be forced to offer increasingly competitive rates of return on deposits, cutting into their bottom line. Valla said business prospects in the finance sector were worse for the first half of 2006.

South Jersey Healthcare chief executive office Chet Kaletkowski rated the past six months at 60 out of 100, no change from the previous six months.

Meanwhile, Kaletkowski pointed to a rising percentage of bad debt from the treatment of uninsured patients. He said state and federal budget deficits would likely lead to a decrease in funding for so-called charity care. Meanwhile, he said, boutique providers of health services, such as surgery and radiology, are growing in number, drawing away profitable business from some hospitals.

Kaletkowski, however, expressed optimism that the incoming administration of Gov. Jon Corzine, who was sworn in Tuesday, would work to reduce the rolls of uninsured.

Another 10 to 15 practices would need to open to meet projected demand, he said, but medical practice insurance can pose a barrier to some doctors.

Despite some of the negative forecasts, Cumberland County Treasurer Gary Simmerman said the forecast panel generally indicated the county was heading in the right direction.

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